US Deficit Hits $2T; AI Debt Risk Rises | Tenetma Report

Healthcare Practice & Business Deals

Global Markets & Macro

Several major macro themes are converging this week, from a record-setting U.S. deficit to growing anxiety over AI-driven debt and a retreat in gold prices.

U.S. deficit hits $2 trillion. The federal budget deficit reached $2 trillion for fiscal year 2026, the largest shortfall since 2021. The federal government paid out $1.052 trillion in net interest on its debt — more than defense spending, and the third-largest outlay after Social Security and Medicare. Net interest costs are estimated at 3.3% of GDP, which would be a record high according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Rising interest costs add to the deficit, driving still more borrowing. Meanwhile, there is little political appetite for the deficit reduction measures that helped balance the budget in the 1990s.

AI infrastructure faces a power bottleneck. Goldman Sachs estimates roughly $7.6 trillion in capital spending between 2026 and 2031 across computing, data centers, and power infrastructure. However, the physical buildout is moving far slower than the technology itself. Since January, 86 projects have been canceled or significantly delayed, with 76 linked to local opposition. Goldman projects $420 billion in global hyperscaler debt issuance in 2027, up more than 60% from its 2026 estimate. Debt is expected to finance roughly 35% of hyperscaler capital expenditures next year. Utility capital plans are expected to reach $1.3 trillion between 2026 and 2030 as the boom transforms the sector.

AI debt risk draws investor attention. Trading volumes in credit default swaps linked to big tech groups have surged as investors seek protection against the AI boom unraveling. Separately, Barclays analysts warned that companies making power and electrical equipment for data centers face growing risks of a pricing squeeze by top AI labs. In addition, a South Korean data center builder tumbled 32% on its trading debut in Seoul, adding to rising concern about AI valuations.

Gold retreats as energy-led inflation clouds the Fed’s path. Gold declined as elevated oil prices added fuel to inflation concerns. Higher energy costs are complicating the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook. Meanwhile, a Crossmark Global Investments strategist said the U.S. is heading for a slowdown rather than a recession, pointing to factors she sees as consistent with reduced economic momentum rather than outright contraction.

Middle East disruption drives multi-year energy demand. Halliburton is predicting years of growing demand for oil field services as nations in the Middle East rebuild energy assets and infrastructure damaged in the Iran war. That same conflict is cited as a contributor to rising inflation and higher interest costs, which are in turn pressuring the U.S. deficit. The UK also announced it will deploy jets to defend Saudi Arabia against Houthi attacks, signaling continued geopolitical pressure on regional energy supply.

Maersk plans $3.5B Vietnam freight network. A.P. Moller-Maersk signed an agreement with Vietnamese conglomerate Hateco to develop a railway freight terminal network in Vietnam, valued at $3.5 billion. The deal was announced during Vietnam’s President To Lam’s official visit to Denmark. It underscores how global logistics players are continuing to invest in Asia-Pacific supply chain infrastructure despite broader macro uncertainty.

What to Watch

The U.S. deficit milestone and rising AI-related debt issuance will keep pressure on Treasury yields and the Fed’s rate calculus in the week ahead. Practice buyers and sellers should note that elevated interest costs continue to affect deal financing across all sectors, including healthcare. On the practice-transaction front, watch for DSO and private-equity add-on activity to resume prominence in coming editions as year-end deal flow typically accelerates in the fourth quarter.

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